Craps Dice Sets
That's right. There are exactly six different axial sets. Again, the only difference is which number the shooter chooses to have 'up' or 'facing down table.' For simplicity sake I have arranged the sets in the chart below showing the axial faces of the individual sets. Remember, the axial set refers to the numbers showing on the SIDES (left/right) of each individual die prior to the toss. The objective is to toss the dice 'on axis' - as if there were a steel rod driven through the two dice like an automobile axle. The dice tumble or roll forward without any excessive bouncing, pitch, yaw, etc. Granted, the toss is a challenge, but you only have to control one roll out of 43 to turn the odds in your favor. Let's look at the 34-34 set first - the left die will have the 3 on the left face and the 4 on the right face. The right die will have the 3 on the left face and the 4 on the right face. If you have a pair of dice get them out and orient them like this. For the sake of this example, let's put the hard ten facing up - the twelve facing your chest, the hard four facing down - and the aces facing toward the computer screen. This is a preferred set for the come out roll. Why? Look at the distribution of numbers it yields when rolled on axis. There are four ways to make the seven and two ways to make the eleven. Instead of 8 naturals out of 36 combinations on a random roll - you have 6 naturals out of 16 combinations. The math of this should be obvious, even to those handicapped by advanced degrees. Okay, let's assume you throw five naturals before establishing a point - which turns out to be a ten. What do you do next? You have your choice of two axial sets. The first is the 52-52, which provides you with two ways to hit the ten when rolled on axis. But look at the incidence of sevens in this combination. There are four ways to make the sevens with this set - when rolled on axis. So a better choice is to switch to the 34-16 set - which reduces the incidence of the seven to two ways. Suddenly, instead of having 2-1 odds against winning on the ten - it is an even money bet. Suddenly, you have a 2-1 ADVANTAGE over the house on the free odds bet on the ten. That, my friend, is what dice setting and controlled rolling is all about.
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Introduction
One of the most frequently asked questions I get, and certainly the most frequent about craps, is whether dice setting is for real. Publicly until now I said I never saw enough evidence either way and had no position. Privately I was more skeptical. However in May 2004 Stanford Wong, whom I have enormous respect for, attended a 4-day seminar on dice setting and as a result reversed his position and gave what I think could be said is an endorsement. Shortly afterward I saw him at a social function and asked him about it. He obviously did believe that some people can influence the dice but that is was very difficult and something few have mastered.
- Once you have the basics down, such as throwing the dice level and parallel to the surface of the craps table, then the next step is to choose a good dice set and really start to apply your newly taught skills. We will talk about two major concepts of dice setting and precision shooting: stopping the dice on the axis and correlation.
- Manipulating the roll of the dice (Dice Control or Dice Setting) is one of the most common methods for cheating in Craps. Holding the dice in a particular grip or throwing it in a certain manner lets players can gain a crucial edge over the house and other players at the table.
- Then, we can simply sum the probabilities for each unique dice sum (2 to 12), telling us the probability of each roll in craps, for the specified dice set. If we look at a specific bet, such as a pass line bet, and specify the dice set.
Wong's comments inspired me to take dice setting more seriously. I had previously been in communication with Frank Scoblete and Larry Edell on the subject, suggesting that I be allowed to observe some top dice setters for myself. Both were agreeable but due to scheduling problems nothing ever came of it. Until recently I also lived within about one mile of dice coach Beau Parker so there was no good reason to keep avoiding the experiment. So after playing phone tag we finally met on July 22 with three other dice setters at the Bellagio.
'Dice control' or 'dice setting' is an advantage play technique used in craps to set and throw the dice in such a way as to make the dice more likely to land on certain numbers. Skeptics assert that controlling the dice.
Craps Dice Sets Cryptowolf
Before starting Beau explained that dice setters are not able to control every single throw but only influence the dice towards certain numbers. At a 3-4-5x odds table the house edge is only 0.374% so it only takes a slight influence of the dice to overcome that house advantage. However a slight influence could take thousands of rolls to become obvious over the normal randomness of the game. So we both agreed one session was unlikely to prove anything.
As I emphasize on the topic of Internet casino cheating the proper way to make a case for a non-random game is to set up a hypothesis first, then gather data, and then statistically test the data for how well it fits the hypothesis. So I asked Beau what I should be testing for. He said on the come out roll that I should test for winning rolls of 7 and 11, and on all other rolls to test for rolling anything except a 7. Following are the specific results. Each come out roll begins a line.
Parker Experiment Results
| Date | Casino | Shooter | Rolls |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Beau | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Beau | 2 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Beau | 6,8,6 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Beau | 8,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 11 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 2 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 6,10,5,9,3,3,12,5,9,5,8,6 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 11 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 10,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Pablo | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Pablo | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Pablo | 5,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Michael | 10,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Beau | 4,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Debbie | 6,3,4,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Pablo | 9,2,4,6,8,4,2,10,5,8,5,5,11,8,6,2,8,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Michael | 11 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Michael | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Bellagio | Michael | 4,6,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Beau | 6,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 8,11,6,6,9,4,10,6,6,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Michael | 6,6 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Michael | 5,4,5 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Michael | 4,5,12,4 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Michael | 9,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Beau | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Beau | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Beau | 9,6,5,8,9 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Beau | 6,11,4,3,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 5,6,3,11,6,6,5 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 12 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 11 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 5,9,8,4,8,11,5 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Debbie | 6,7 |
| July 22, 2004 | Westin | Michael | 10,7 |
The next table summarizes the results. The sample size is too small to perform any robust tests. However just an eyeball test shows the results are thus far close to expectations in a random game. So clearly more testing needs to be done, and is planned for.
Parker Experiment Summary
| Event | Number |
| Come out rolls | 37 |
| Come out wins (7 or 11) | 11 |
| Expected come out wins (7 or 11) | 8.22 |
| Non-come out rolls | 79 |
| Non-come out win (non-7) | 65 |
| Expected non-come out win (non-7) | 65.83 |
Craps Dice Sets For Rolling A 7
Stanford Wong Experiment
In August 2004 debate was raging at Stanford Wong's site bj21.com about dice setting. The discussion could be found under the member's only Green Chip section on craps. A professional gambler there challenged Wong to a bet. The terms of the bet were whether precision shooters could roll fewer than 79.5 sevens in 500 rolls of the dice. The expected number in a random game would be 83.33. The probability of rolling 79 or fewer sevens in 500 random rolls is 32.66%.
I was asked to be a monitor for the event, but was out of the country at the time. However I did make an $1800 bet on the over with a well known gambling writer. The dates and locations of the event were kept very quiet, and were not being made available to the public. The shooters were Wong himself and someone known only as 'Little Joe.' According to Wong, the experiment went well and not one roll was called dead nor disputed by the two sides of the bet present at the event. The following table shows the results by shooter.
Wong Experiment Results
| Shooter | Total Rolls | Total Sevens | Percent Sevens |
| Wong | 278 | 45 | 16.19% |
| Little Joe | 222 | 29 | 13.06% |
| Total | 500 | 74 | 14.80% |
Congratulations to Wong on winning with five sevens to spare. The probability of rolling 74 or fewer sevens in 500 random rolls is 14.41%.
Internal Links
- How the house edge for each bet is derived, in brief.
- The house edge of all the major bets on both a per-bet made and per-roll basis
- Dice Control Experiments. The results of two experiments on skillful dice throwing.
- Dice Control Advantage. The player advantage, assuming he can influence the dice.
- Craps variants. Alternative rules and bets such as the Fire Bet, Crapless Craps, and Card Craps.
- California craps. How craps is played in California using playing cards.
- Play Craps. Craps game using cards at the Viejas casino in San Diego.
- Number of Rolls Table. Probability of a shooter lasting 1 to 200 rolls before a seven-out.
- Ask the Wizard. See craps questions I've answered about:
- Simple Craps game. My simple Java craps game.